Analytics

How The Live Probabilities Work

Methodology

The end by end score sheet for games that were played after the 5 rock rule was introduced (2018-2019 curling season) were downloaded for the following events:

• 2019 Scotties Tournament of Hearts

• 2020 Scotties Tournament of Hearts

• 2019 Brier

• 2020 Men Provincial Playdowns

• 2018 Canada Cup

• 2019 Canada Cup

• 2019 World Championships

The point differential plus who had hammer at the conclusion of each end was compared with the team that won the game. The number of times teams won or lost with that particular point differential and hammer was tallied. The number of games won with that point differential plus hammer divided by the total number of games would equal the probability of winning the game.

Example:

The total number of counted games where a team is 1 point ahead with hammer in the 3rd end is 60. Of those 60 games, the team up 1 with hammer in the 3rd end has won 44 times and lost 16 times. That means that the winning percentage of teams being 1 up with hammer in the third end is 73%